A few thoughts on the challenge of projecting potential:
→ HS recruits obsess over their ceiling. College coaches are wary of their floor. HS recruits, coaches and parents (especially) tend to round up massively on a player’s potential. College coaches tend to round down much harder. You are recruiting with your livelihood as a college coach. Floors are much easier to find than ceilings.
→ A great way to think about this: College coaches will take a lot off the top of what you think you’re capable of. If you can physically make a 60 yard FG off sticks in shorts and t-shirt, a college coach will say OK maybe we feel good with him trying a 47 yarder in game. Kicking is practiced like it’s golf - a closed system where the player controls nearly all the variables. But, kicking only happens in an open system, in a real game - where a number of things are uncontrollable and can go wrong, fast.
→ Almost any potential high school recruit can, with dedication and hard work, turn themselves into at least some form of a DIII college football player. In the kicking universe, almost any player with enough dedication can find a 50 yard FG in their leg - even with little “natural talent” (I was one of those guys). Finding 55 yards, finding 60 yards is going to take some genetics.
→ Safety schools are schools that you could play at tomorrow as you are, right now. Dream schools are schools you will need to hit a growth spurt to really turn into a reality. You can’t always control genetic timing or your height. The harder schools to find are the “target” schools. These are schools that, if you receive a tiny nudge from your genetics, and work your tail off, and slowly, but steadily improved for the next 12-18 months, you would end up at.
→ If you really want to quantify your potential as a kicker or quarterback, get tracked on TrackMan Football’s system. It will tell you unambiguously where your leg and arm strength is. Which is good and bad. It’ll dispel the nice illusions that your private trainer has you under about hitting a reach school. It’ll potentially dash some dreams of DI ball. But, it’ll also save you a lot of time, effort, money and frustration. 70mph ball speed off the foot makes you an FBS level kicker. Every FBS kicker can hit 60 + yard FGs off sticks. That’s pretty black and white.
→ Parents and coaches are torn between encouraging dreams while making sure their player has at least one foot in reality. Going big is what gives life its flavor. But, you also don’t want to encourage dreams to the extent that they become delusions. No one gets it exactly right.